The country’s total fertility rate declined to 1.9, falling below the replacement level of 2.1., it says
The number of people in India expected to peak
at 170 crore before declining in around 40 years
It says 68% of the population in the world’s most populous nation is in the age group of 15 to 64
The Hindu Bureau
New Delhi
India’s population is estimated to have reached 146.39 crore by April, says a new UN demographic report, which adds that the country’s total fertility rate (TFR) has declined to 1.9, falling below the replacement level of 2.1.
The population is expected to grow to 170 crore before starting to dip in about 40 years, the report titled “State of the World Population 2025: The Real Fertility Crisis” says. It calls India the “world’s most populous nation”, while pegging China’s current population at 141.61 crore.
The demographic indicators in the United Nations Population Fund report for 2025 are close to India’s own projection of its population published in 2019 by a technical group of experts. According to these projections, India, as of 2025, will have a population of 141.10 crore.
The decennial Census, due to have been conducted in 2021, has been delayed and the government has now announced that it will be completed by March 2027.
The last Census was conducted in 2011.
Replacement level TFR
According to the latest Sample Registration System statistical report published by the Office of the Registrar General of India for 2021, the TFR in India was 2.0, the same as the year before, with the report saying that the replacement level TFR “has been attained” nationally.
The TFR measures the number of children a woman is expected to have throughout her reproductive age.
Replacement level TFR is the rate needed for each generation to replace the previous generation’s population.
The real crisis
The UN report says that millions of people are not able to realise their real fertility goals. Calling this the “real” crisis, and not overpopulation or underpopulation, the report calls for the pursuit of reproductive agency — a person’s ability to make free and informed choices about sex, contraception and starting a family — in a changing world.
India’s youth population remains significant, with about 24% of the population in the age bracket of 0-14 , 17% in the age bracket of 10-19, and 26% in the age group of 10-24. Further, the report estimates that 68% of the population in India is of working age (15-64 years).
Elderly population
The elderly population (65 and older) currently stands at 7%, a figure that is expected to rise in the coming decades as life expectancy improves, the report adds, confirming the projections the government in India has been working with.
The UN report says that as of 2025, life expectancy at birth is projected to be 71 years for men and 74 years for women.
The report says its statistical tables on demographic indicators “draw on nationally representative household surveys” such as “Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS), United Nations organizations estimates, and inter-agency estimates”.
“They also include the latest population estimates and projections from World Population Prospects: The 2024 revision, and Model-based Estimates and Projections of Family Planning Indicators 2024 (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division),” it adds.
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