What are the major issues that shaped the German federal elections? Will AfD’s rise affect Germany’s future?
Padmashree Anandhan
The story so far:
On February 23, Germany held its federal elections with a new record of 82.5% turnout. According to the Federal Electoral Committee, the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) along with the Christian Social Union (CSU) won the majority of votes followed by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) leaving the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens in third and fourth places. The primary takeaway of the election is not the win of CDU but the rise of the AfD. For CDU to form a coalition, 316 seats are needed and the negotiations between CDU, AfD, and SPD remain a deciding factor for Germany’s political landscape. The table shows the election results.
What are the major electoral issues?
In 2025, a new electoral reform changed the distribution of parliament seats. Voters cannot choose the chancellor directly. A ballot paper has two votes: one to decide the candidate with the most votes in a district, among 630 such seats in parliament. The next decides the proportional representation and vote distribution of the contending political parties. A clause excluded parties winning less than 5% of the vote from parliament. The reform removed “overhang seats,” which previously benefitted the SPD, limiting parliament’s size. Now, even if a candidate wins in a district, they cannot secure a seat unless their party succeeds in the second ballot.
The second issue was that of immigration. The CDU, FDP, AfD, and BSW have constantly called for tougher immigration regulations over the SPD and Greens’ moderate stance. After several attacks in Germany, the public demand for stricter policies increased. CDU leader Friedrich Merz aimed to deport “undocumented foreigners and asylum seekers” from the border. Chancellor, Olaf Scholz criticised his approach but promised further border controls and faster deportations in a “humane and consistent” way. One of the reasons for AfD’s vote gain is its strong stance against illegal migration.
Economic revival was the third issue. The parties stood for increasing economic competitiveness. The most debated issue was the debt brake law, restricting the structural deficit to 0.35% of GDP. CDU and FDP supported it, while the SPD and Greens preferred to relax it. However, with a recession, new investments remain uncertain. Merz pledged to cut bureaucracy, while Scholz called for wealth and high inheritance taxes.
Fourth, Ukraine and NATO dominated foreign policy. Most parties stood for supporting Ukraine and boosting the defences of NATO, except for AfD and BSW, who opposed military aid and favoured closer ties with Russia, including repairing Nord Stream pipelines. Meanwhile, SPD, CDU, and Greens supported increasing military spending above NATO’s 2% requirement.
What explains the rise of AFD?
The growing influence of the far-right AfD is due to several reasons, primarily the migrant crisis. The government’s lenient approach to refugees led to the rise of security and economic concerns, creating a divide. This was used by the AfD in its favour, showcasing a stricter stance on immigration and border control. Another key reason for AfD’s rise was its encashing in on the dissatisfaction of mainstream parties. AfD also targetted young voters through social media and appeals to East Germans, who face high unemployment and feel unrepresented. Beyond domestic factors, the broader right-wing shift in France, Italy, and Hungary further aligned with AfD’s agenda.
Will CDU be able to form a stable government?
To form a government, the parties that won must negotiate to form a coalition majority. Germany’s election system and the recent reform promote coalition governments, and with CDU and CSU falling 108 seats short of a majority, they need support from either the SPD or AfD. However, with SPD, negotiating on social policy is viewed to be difficult, while the AfD stands secluded as the mainstream parties have vowed not to work with it. CDU leader Merz indicated the same, calling the new government “one of the last chances” to prevent the growth of AfD. According to AfD’s leader, Alice Weidel, a political change is already in process but is being delayed. Considering the possibilities of a CDU-SPD coalition, several ideological differences persist on issues such as taxes, social welfare, immigration, employment flexibility, and climate action. But, given the historical relations and the mindset of both parties, despite Scholz’s objections, to come together, intense talks are needed to lead to a coalition. One advantage of Germany’s political system is that it facilitates negotiations and is well structured to provide opportunities that can prevent a political impasse.
Padmashree Anandhan is a Research Associate with the Europe Area Studies at NIAS
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