It may not be a return of the “Pink Tide” of leftist governments that swept into power across South America in the early 2000s—and were largely swept out again amid a conservative backlash in the mid-2010s. But the region’s left has been showing signs of revival.
In Argentina’s October 2019 presidential election, the moderate-left Peronist candidate, Alberto Fernandez, ousted the market-friendly incumbent, Mauricio Macri, whose austerity measures and heavy borrowing triggered an economic crisis that cost him the presidency. Also in 2019, violent protests erupted in Colombia in September against mounting police brutality under law-and-order President Ivan Duque. And both Ecuador and Chile saw massive demonstrations that forced Ecuador’s government to backtrack on austerity measures and challenged Chile’s longstanding neoliberal economic model. In October 2020, Bolivia returned the Movement Toward Socialism to power in the first presidential election since Evo Morales was ousted, and last year Pedro Castillo, a far-left teacher with no previous experience as an elected official, won Peru’s presidential election. And most recently, Gabriel Boric, a former student protest leader and leftist legislator, became the youngest president in Chile’s history after taking office earlier this month.
The conservative wave that followed the Pink Tide is far from ebbing, though. The 2018 election of Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil was a particular blow to the region’s progressives, and he has justified their fears. His administration has curbed the fight against corruption and downplayed the severity of the coronavirus pandemic, even as he has continued to denigrate the country’s Indigenous communities and undermined the country’s democratic norms. In Uruguay, conservatives took control of the government in 2019 from the leftist Broad Front coalition that had been in power for a decade and a half. More recently, conservative Guillermo Lasso won Ecuador’s presidential election in May 2021, and Argentina’s ruling Peronist government suffered a major setback in midterm elections in November of the same year.
Venezuela’s regime remains as the last holdout of South America’s Pink Tide. But the Bolivarian revolution that began under former President Hugo Chavez has transformed into an economic and humanitarian disaster under his successor, Nicolas Maduro. The attempt to dislodge Maduro and replace him with Juan Guaido in 2018 gained the support of the U.S. as well as governments across the region and the world. But that effort flagged, and the opposition’s decision to boycott in parliamentary elections in December 2020 due to fears they would be as rigged as Maduro’s 2018 presidential reelection cost it control of the legislative body that had been the legal foundation of Guaido’s claim to legitimacy as interim president. Guaido is now struggling to keep his movement from fading into irrelevance.
Major advances in the region are also in danger. Colombia’s fragile peace process faltered after Duque’s hostility to the deal resulted in half-hearted implementation of its measures. Meanwhile, the illicit drug trade is booming, as is organized crime, even as corruption continues to flourish. Now the coronavirus pandemic has added another immense challenge to South America’s public health systems and economies, with implications for leaders who failed to take the threat seriously.
Prior to the pandemic, Russia and China sought to deepen trade ties with countries across the region. America, threatened by Moscow and Beijing’s newfound interest, has accused them of propping up corrupt governments and is taking steps to shore up its own partnerships in South America. How prominent a role the region will play in President Joe Biden’s Latin America policy remains to be seen.
WPR has covered South America in detail and continues to examine key questions about what will happen next. How will the health and economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic affect the region’s political landscape? What will flagging international support for Guaido mean for Venezuela’s political and humanitarian crises? And what steps will Washington take to counter Russian and Chinese influence in the region? Below are some of the highlights of WPR’s coverage.
Over the past decade or so, the Kremlin has endeavored to woo Latin America, with the purpose of building a beachhead in a region geographically close to the United States. But three weeks into the Ukraine war, there is little evidence these efforts have yielded any significant benefits for Russia.
Politics
Right-wing and center-right governments now control Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Uruguay and Paraguay. In part a reaction to the years of leftist rule, the right’s rise has also been fueled by the emergence of major corruption scandals that tainted politicians and parties across the region. But the left has demonstrated resilience as a political force. In Bolivia, for instance, the party of former President Evo Morales regained power in the first elections since his ouster. Peruvian voters also opted for the far-left candidate Pedro Castillo in that country’s presidential election last year, although for many it was due to a lack of other acceptable options. And for many, Boric represents a “new” new left, combining a progressive vision with a pragmatic willingness to compromise. For now, however, the coronavirus still consumes the political and economic agenda across the region.
- What Colombia’s legalization of abortion means for the region’s transnational pro-choice movement, in With Abortion Legalization, Colombia Joins South America’s ‘Green Wave’
- Why Peruvians are losing patience with their novice president, in Peru Is Tired of Castillo’s On-the-Job Training
- What it will take for Boric to make good on his agenda, in To Govern, Chile’s Boric Will Have to Build Bridges
- How Castillo’s policies belie his dedication to Peru’s marginalized communities, in Peru’s Castillo Is No Friend of the Poor
Security and Drugs
The drug trade is booming, particularly in Colombia, where cocaine production is at an all-time high. That has fueled violence and put state legitimacy at risk across swathes of the continent. Some leaders, desperate for a solution, are responding with growing militarization. Meanwhile, labor advocates, Indigenous leaders and civil society remain vulnerable to political violence.
- Why Colombia’s fragile peace accord is coming under increasing pressure, in War Returns to Colombia’s Countryside
- Why the Southern Cone is becoming a preferred transit corridor for the region’s drug traffickers, in South America’s Cocaine Traffickers Are Heading South
- What’s driving recent fighting between two guerrilla groups on the Colombian-Venezuelan border, in Colombia’s ‘Peace Dividend’ Isn’t Paying Off
- What recent deadly prison riots in Ecuador reveal about Latin America’s prison reform efforts, in Reforming Latin America’s Overcrowded Prisons Won’t Be Easy
Trade and Economic Development
Moscow and Beijing have been eager to increase their economic ties to South America, leveraging the unease that was caused by former President Donald Trump’s mixed messages to the region. Washington has pushed back, warning that the two powers are looking to sow disorder on the continent. Meanwhile, there is evidence that South American economies will not emerge unscathed from the U.S.-China trade war, despite growing trade with Asia and Europe. And all that was before the coronavirus pandemic hit.
- Why windfall oil revenues are a mixed blessing for Guyana, in Guyana’s Oil Wealth Comes With Some Strings Attached
- Why declining natural gas production is a big problem for Bolivia, in Bolivia’s Economic Model Is Running Out of Gas
- How Bolivia’s refusal to regulate the import and use of mercury is becoming a regional problem, in Bolivia’s Gold Mining Industry Is Poisoning South America
- How Guyana and Suriname might be able to meet their climate commitments without sacrificing oil revenues, in Guyana and Suriname Might Be Able to Balance Oil Revenues and Climate Goals
Venezuela
The humanitarian crisis in Venezuela is deepening, even as the standoff between Maduro and the opposition seems to have been won by the Chavista regime. Though his claim to the presidency was backed by much of the continent, along with Washington, Guaido failed to dislodge Maduro. Now Maduro, who oversaw the country’s economic freefall, appears to have decisively sidelined Guaido, in part due to the support of the Venezuelan military—and Russia.
- What the war in Ukraine means for diplomatic efforts to resolve Venezuela’s crisis, in Venezuela’s Crisis Could Be Another Casualty of Russia’s Ukraine Invasion
- How Venezuela’s opposition might benefit from a recent political opening, in Venezuela’s Opposition Could Become Relevant Again
- How Venezuela’s opposition is testing the prospects of negotiations with the Maduro regime, in Venezuela’s Opposition Shifts Gears on Talks With Maduro
- Why Maduro’s hold on the country is more tenuous than it seems, in Armed Gangs and Warlords Are Taking Over Venezuela
Corruption
Corruption scandals, which proliferated under the left-wing administrations of the Pink Tide, helped drive the ascent of the right. But the scandal involving payoffs by the Brazilian construction giant Odebrecht across the region has also taken down center-right politicians. Corruption remains high on the list of voters’ grievances, even as the pandemic has increased both the opportunities for and the costs of graft and impunity. Unless it is brought under control, corruption might ultimately undermine the region’s democratic institutions.
- Why Castillo could be the next Peruvian president brought down by corruption charges, in Peru’s Castillo Is His Own Worst Enemy
- Why both candidates in Peru’s presidential election
- spelled trouble for the country’s anti-corruption campaign, in Either Way, Peru’s Election Is Bad News for Anti-Graft Efforts
- Why now is the wrong time for South America to let up on its anti-corruption efforts, in Latin America’s Anti-Corruption Drive Has Stalled at the Worst Possible Time
- Why tackling money laundering is also key to the fight against the coronavirus pandemic, in Money Laundering Could Stifle Latin America’s Response to COVID-19
- https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/insights/27904/after-the-end-of-the-pink-tide-what-s-next-for-south-america
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