Why China’s 2022 Party Congress Will Be a Landmark: QuickTake
President Xi Jinping looks set to disrupt the transition of power in China by securing a precedent-defying third term as leader of the Communist Party at its 20th congress this year. In the runup, Xi has stressed such ambitious goals as narrowing the country’s wide wealth gap and more aggressively asserting its interests globally. In any case, he has few challengers: An anti-corruption campaign peeled off rivals over the past decade, and no one with the right age or experience has been groomed as a successor.
1. Why does this congress matter?
In China’s system of national government, there’s no popular vote: The party itself is supreme. Members hold a congress every five years to decide their leaders and policy priorities — and thus the country’s — and position cadres to move up the ladder. Former leader Deng Xiaoping introduced a system for orderly succession in the 1980s to prevent a repeat of the turbulent, 27-year, one-man rule of Mao Zedong. Xi’s decision not to anoint a successor at the last congress in 2017, combined with changes to the constitution the following year that abolished a two-term limit for the president (a title he would otherwise have had to give up in 2023), sparked speculation that he planned to ignore that system. While he may have critics inside the party, there’s no obvious faction against him. The party’s adoption last year of a landmark “historical resolution” by Xi confirmed he had its firm backing — such resolutions had been made only twice before, by Mao and by Deng, both of whom dominated Chinese politics until they died. That means this year’s congress could set up Xi to do the same, even though he’s set to pass the recommended retirement age of 68 in June.
2. What’s Xi’s record?
When Xi became party leader in late 2012, he pledged to spearhead what he called “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” — to make it a major power on the world stage. Today, China has an economy on course to surpass the U.S.’s as the world’s biggest in a decade or so, boasts the largest navy and has invested billions of dollars in infrastructure projects around the world to build influence. Domestically, he’s declared victory over extreme poverty — defined as those who earn less than 11 yuan ($1.69) per day — and largely contained the pandemic for more than two years, with a tiny fraction of the Covid-related deaths reported in the U.S., which has less than a quarter of China’s population. He’s also tightened controls over the internet, cracked down on public criticism and detained members of minority groups, including in the predominantly Muslim Xinjiang region. His hard line against Hong Kong’s pro-democracy movement and the self-governing island of Taiwan, which China claims as a renegade province, has resulted in increasingly fractious relations with Western democracies.
3. What are current priorities?
To deliver stability and economic growth, while stamping out any new Covid outbreaks. China set an ambitious growth target of around 5.5% for 2022, but that looked increasingly difficult to achieve after pandemic-related lockdowns disrupted manufacturing and consumer spending in the first half of the year. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which drove up energy and commodity prices, added to the challenge. Xi has been working to maintain trade ties with Russia without running afoul of economic sanctions imposed on the country by the US and Europe as a result of the war. At home, Xi’s government appeared this year to have eased off its push against the “disorderly expansion of capital,” which aimed in part to facilitate “common prosperity,” or a more even distribution of wealth, but had the effect of scaring off foreign investors, erasing trillions of dollars of market value from China’s listed companies.
4. Who are others to watch?
There’s anticipation over possible turnover in the party’s Standing Committee, the inner sanctum of power. It currently has seven members including Xi, the leader. Two of them, Han Zheng and Li Zhanshu, could remain this year beyond retirement norms, frustrating the advancement of younger cadres. But analysts say Xi is unlikely to allow that out of concern they could build their own power bases. There’s also talk about who might take over from Premier Li Keqiang, whose second term ends in March 2023. When Xi lifted the term limits for the president, he left them in place for the premier, an administrative role that typically focuses on economic and budget issues. Normally that spot would go to Han as the first-ranked vice premier — if not for his age. Possible contenders are two longtime Xi associates, Chen Miner, 61, and Ding Xuexiang, 59, as well as Hu Chunhua, 59.
5. How does the congress work?
There’s no fixed date, but the past few have been held in October or November. More than 2,000 delegates including provincial leaders, top military figures, farmers and minority representatives descend on Beijing’s Great Hall of the People. Ostensibly, they elect the party’s general secretary and other top jobs including head of the Central Military Commission, or commander in chief. (Xi holds that title, too.) In reality, the decisions are made in advance. Party elders and power brokers normally retreat to the seaside town of Beidaihe in July or August to lobby for their picks. The congress runs for a week with meetings behind closed doors and at the end Xi delivers a speech that’s already been rubber-stamped. China’s 1.4 billion people will learn who’ll be running their economy, military and foreign policy when he strides along a red carpet soon after the close of the congress with the new Standing Committee following him in order of rank. The position of president, or head of state, is appointed the following March at the National People’s Congress, China’s mostly ceremonial legislature.
The Reference Shelf
- Bloomberg News recaps Xi’s wins and losses from a decade in power.
- More QuickTakes on how gay life in China has gotten tougher under Xi, Covid Zero, and why some Chinese are ‘lying flat.’
- A Foreign Affairs story on Xi’s new world order.
- Bloomberg Opinion’s Shuli Ren on what Xi means by common prosperity, and why China’s tech crackdown may be ending.
- A podcast by the Brookings Institution on the state of China’s economy and U.S.-China relations.
- “The World According to China,” a book by Elizabeth C. Economy cited on the Council on Foreign Relations website.
— With assistance by Lucille Liu, Colum Murphy, James Mayger, and Yujing Liu
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