The outcome of the Assembly poll in Telangana means that K. Chandrashekhar Rao would have to hand over the reins of India’s youngest State to someone else. Since the days of the Statehood agitation, KCR has come to be regarded as the foremost leader of the State. Despite this, he could not mobilise the people of Telangana to vote for the BRS as much as he would have liked in this election. The survey by Lokniti-CSDS throws light on the reasons for this.
One of the factors was the emergence of State Congress chief Revanth Reddy as a leader who could match up to KCR’s popularity. It is significant to note that while 29% of voters wanted KCR as the next Chief Minister, another 29% favoured Reddy.
Among women voters, 31% preferred KCR, while Reddy was close behind with 26% (Table 1). The Congress leader also managed to build a strong appeal among young voters. Among voters under 25 years, 32% wanted him as CM as opposed to 28% who stood with KCR. Among voters who were 56 years and above, 37% wanted KCR to continue as Chief Minister for another term.
Among the Reddys, 38% wanted the Congress leader to be the next CM, while 25% preferred KCR. Preference for KCR was higher among Dalits and Adivasis, but Reddy did not trail by far. Among Muslims, 33% favoured KCR while 23% wanted Reddy (Table 3).
As the leader of the Statehood agitation, KCR remains popular among those who believe that the creation of Telangana has greatly helped satisfy popular expectations. A total of 60% of such voters preferred KCR over Reddy. But close to half the voters (45%) felt that Statehood only somewhat addressed the issues of people.
Among voters in this group, 29% wanted KCR as Chief Minister while, quite importantly, another 29% turned to Reddy (Table 4).
The performance of the State government also appears to have motivated voters to turn away from KCR. Only voters who were fully satisfied with the government’s performance favoured KCR. Even among those who were moderately satisfied with its work, 29% wanted to see Reddy as the next CM (Table 5).
As a matter of fact, the CM face was not an important consideration for voters in this election. Only 14% were influenced by this factor. While 38% made up their voting decision by assessing their respective MLA candidates, for 32%, political parties were the most important consideration (Table 6).
Given the importance placed on parties, voters were likely to side with the one that they perceived to be better. Close to half the voters felt that the BRS was more corrupt compared to the Congress. More than half viewed the BRS to be more nepotistic compared to the Congress.
With regard to Telangana’s development, the BRS was regarded to be better, but the Congress was close behind. The Congress also was considered to be better than the BRS for representing the marginalised communities. Therefore, the Congress appeared to be the better party in the eyes of voters.
Abhinav Pankaj Borbora is a researcher at Lokniti-CSDS, and T. Venkatesh is a doctoral candidate at the University of Hyderabad https://epaper.thehindu.com/ccidist-ws/th/th_delhi/issues/62232/OPS/GGHC3QTP4.1.png?cropFromPage=true
Farmers choose Cong. despite benefiting from govt. schemes
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JYOTI MISHRA & NIRMANYU CHAUHAN
To gain political advantage, the BRS counted on its flagship programme, Rythu Bandhu, which has helped thousands of farmers. The scheme, started in 2018, provided ₹5,000 per acre to each farmer.
This rabi season, the government was supposed to provide funds to about 64 lakh farmers, but the State was scheduled to vote on November 30.
With the Congress crossing the majority mark, it becomes pertinent to inquire why, despite the fanfare, Rythu Bandhu did not work wonders for the BRS. While examining the voter response to various State government initiatives for farmers, it was found that nearly four in five (80%) farmers benefited from Rythu Bandhu, and three in four (76%) benefited from free power supply. However, a higher number of voters cast their votes for the Congress party compared to the ruling BRS (Table 1).
Even though Rythu Bandhu was a flagship programme of the BRS, only four of every 10 (43%) of those who benefited from it voted for the party. This suggests that the initiative may not have translated into unwavering political support. Nonetheless, the BRS benefited from the Rythu Bima scheme, as data suggest that those who benefited (30%) from this scheme favoured the BRS more compared to the Congress (Table 1).
The findings also suggest that despite farmers benefiting from welfare schemes launched by the Central government, such as the PM Kisan Yojana and the PM Fasal Bima Yojana, they voted for the Congress. Nearly three in five (61%) farmers in Telangana acknowledged receiving benefits from the PM Kisan Yojana, and less than half (46%) of them voted for the Congress (Table 2). The BJP did not gain any edge from the scheme.
Despite the BRS’s reliance on farmers’ welfare schemes, its electoral defeat in Telangana indicates that farmer benefits did not secure political loyalty. Voters, despite reaping rewards from government schemes, leaned towards the Congress.
Jyoti Mishra and Nirmanyu Chauhan are researchers at Lokniti-CSDS
https://epaper.thehindu.com/ccidist-ws/th/th_delhi/issues/62232/OPS/G2JC3P6AF.1+GGHC3QTP0.1.html
Blend of strategies key factor behind Congress triumph
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DEVESH KUMAR & RISHIKESH YADAV
The creditable victory of the Congress in Telangana stands as a testament to its adept voter outreach model , with campaign strategists enhancing their digital and offline presence.
Data from the Lokniti-CSDS survey reveal the Congress (52%) and the BRS (52%) boasting equal figures in virtual voters’ outreach programmes via phone calls and recorded voice messages. The BJP (44%) closely followed suit, while the BSP trailed behind at 10% (Table 1). The Congress (78%) excelled in the outreach programme, too, with its workers visiting more voters’ homes compared to the BRS (76%), while the BJP trailed behind at 63% (Table 2).
An intriguing pattern also emerged among voters who participated in election campaigns (38%), attended rallies (30%), and engaged in door-to-door canvassing (25%). These voters exhibited a higher inclination to vote in favour of the Congress over the BRS (Table 3).
The Congress approach, blending online and on-ground strategies, played a decisive role in its win.
Devesh Kumar and Rishikesh Yadav are researchers at Lokniti-CSDS
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Poor reach of popular welfare schemes dashed BRS’s hopes of scoring hat-trick
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AADYOT PRAKASH & SUBHABITA KRISHNA
Despite the claims made by the BRS regarding its overwhelmingly popular model of welfare politics, the party suffered a crushing defeat in the election.
The BRS’s poll manifesto centred on these welfare schemes. However, the Lokniti-CSDS survey shows that a large chunk of voters did not benefit from most of these schemes. The government’s Aasara Pension Scheme had the maximum reach, while the Housing Scheme had the minimum reach. There seems to be a clear correlation between not having benefited from the schemes and a higher vote percentage for the Congress (Table 1).
The KCR government also launched targeted schemes for the Scheduled Castes and the Other Backward Classes. Nearly four in five voters from SC (82%) and OBC castes (83%) did not benefit from these schemes. This revealed a clear voting trend toward the Congress, especially among OBC voters, as two in five OBC voters (43%), who did not benefit from the schemes, voted for the Congress (Table 2).
On the other hand, the Central schemes had much lower penetration in the State. On an average, three in five voters did not benefit from the BJP-led Centre’s schemes. Those who did not benefit from these schemes found no reason to vote for the BJP.
As a result, nearly two in five voters, who did not benefit from the Central government schemes, also chose the Congress over other parties (Table 3).
It seems that the generally limited reach of the BRS’s schemes in Telangana, even after a decade in power, has interrupted its ‘hat-trick’. The findings suggest voters decide on who to vote for based on whether they benefit from schemes. If they do not benefit, they choose a party other than the incumbent.
Aadyot Prakash and Subhabita Krishna are researchers at Lokniti-CSDS
https://epaper.thehindu.com/ccidist-ws/th/th_delhi/issues/62232/OPS/GGHC3QTOU.1.png?cropFromPage=true
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