Lessons for key parties from Tripura election
There has been an endorsement of the ruling alliances in all three States that went to the polls, with varying degrees of assertiveness. In Tripura, the biggest beneficiary has been TIPRA Motha
The pattern in the electoral outcomes in the States which went to the polls in the northeast appears similar in important ways. There has clearly been an endorsement of the ruling alliances in all the three States, with varying degrees of assertiveness. In Tripura, the BJP-led coalition returned to power with a smaller majority and a 10 percentage point decline in its vote share as compared with its first historic win here in 2018. The alliance of the Left and Congress came a distant second, witnessing both a marginal fall in seat share and a 10 percentage point drop in vote share as compared with 2018. The beneficiary of this decline in vote and seat share of both the BJP-led alliance and the Left-Congress alliance has been the new player in State politics, the TIPRA Motha, which secured close to 20% of the votes and came a close third with 13 seats (Table 1).
The Lokniti-CSDS post-poll survey in Tripura provides key insights in explaining the results and the mood of the voter. It is clear that the individual candidates played a minor role in defining voter choice. For those who voted for the BJP and the Left-led alliances, the party seemed to be the most important factor, with more than half the respondents indicating the same.
TIPRA supporters
Supporters of the TIPRA Motha took a distinctly different stand. While one-fourth of the respondents who voted for this party said that both party and candidate were an important consideration, another two in 10 said it was the party, and one in 10 said it was the candidate. However, what made supporters of the TIPRA Motha different was the fact that for two in 10 respondents, the leadership of the party chief, Pradyot Bikram Manikya Deb Barma, was the key factor, and for another two in 10, the caste/tribe factor was crucial.
It is important to record that in 2021, the TIPRA Motha swept to power in the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council elections
(see Table 2).
Thus, while the BJP-led alliance was endorsed for a second term, the new player on the block is clearly the TIPRA Motha. The main goal of the party is the creation of the State of Greater Tipraland. For a new entrant, to garner nearly 20% vote in its debut election is a critical feat. As the piece on caste-community basis shows, this was made possible by the huge support the TIPRA Motha received from the State’s tribal voters.
It is also important to note that the TIPRA Motha’s supporters were a little more likely to say that they decided on their choice before the start of the campaign (Table 3 and 4).
The BJP-led alliance appeared to have a better strategy to reach out to voters as two-thirds of the respondents indicated that someone reached out to them during the campaign. It is interesting that only one-fourth of the respondents said that a supporter of TIPRA Motha approached them on behalf of the party. This could also imply that the TIPRA Motha had a concentrated area of campaign and focused on those areas where they saw the potential for support (Table 5).
The BJP-led alliance drew stronger support among women with close to half the women respondents voting in its favour with a handsome gender advantage of 13%. Among the first-time voters, the Left-led alliance seemed to have higher levels of support. The Motha drew very little support among first-time voters. Support for the BJP-led alliance declined as the access to education improved. On the other hand, the vote share of the Left-led alliance increased as one moved from the less affluent to the economically better off. It is also important to record that over one-third of the poor voters favoured the TIPRA Motha (see Table 6). However, this may be more because of the economically weaker condition of the Adivasis who backed the party.
Three indicators
The Tripura verdict has three clear indicators. The BJP-led alliance continues to enjoy popular support, though there is a visible decline as compared with 2018. Second, the new player in State politics, the TIPRA Motha, has clearly signalled its presence. Third, the Left-Congress alliance were unable to secure any major electoral gains by coming together.
(Sandeep Shastri is Vice-Chancellor at Jagran Lakecity University, Bhopal, and national coordinator of the Lokniti network; Suhas Palshikar taught political science and is chief editor of Studies in Indian Politics; Sanjay Kumar is professor and co-director Lokniti-Centre for Study of Developing Societies)
State witnesses a three-way division of voters on community lines
With the Left Front and the Congress coming together, there was some expectation that it would dent the larger social coalition shaped by the BJP in Tripura.
Like almost everywhere else, the BJP has been attempting to shape a ‘Hindu coalition’ by attracting all sections of the Hindu community. What is hidden in its current success, however, is the limitation of this effort. In fact, Tripura witnessed a three-way division of voters on community lines: the non-tribal Hindus voting mostly for the BJP, the Adivasis voting primarily for the TIPRA Motha party and the Muslims voting for the Left-Congress alliance (Table 1).
Adivasi population
More than half of the upper caste voters and the Scheduled Caste voters chose the BJP, while almost two in three OBCs voted in its favour. In a State where the Adivasi population accounts for almost one-third of the total population, the inability of the BJP to attract these votes was the main obstacle in the party’s dream of posting a sweeping victory. This limitation will also become a major hurdle for the BJP in formulating policies that would satisfy the Adivasi population and meet its demands.
With handsome support from the Adivasis, the TIPRA Motha has emerged as their main spokesperson. While almost one in two Hindu upper caste voter and close to two in three OBC voter think that the BJP is a better option for protecting their interests, an overwhelming majority of 93% Adivasis think similarly of the TIPRA Motha (Table 2).
This also indicates the fracture in the Tripura society and the difficulty in reconciling the interests of the Adivasis and rest of the Hindu supporters of the BJP.
The Tipraland factor
Voters are divided over the question of Greater Tipraland. While close to three-fourths are aware of this demand, support for the same comes almost exclusively from the Adivasis — over 90% Adivasis fully support the demand and among upper castes, OBCs and SCs, there is considerable opposition to it
(Table 3).
This is reflected in the voting choice of different communities, with supporters of Greater Tipraland mostly voting for the TIPRA Motha, while the opponents split between the BJP and the Left-Congress alliance
(Table 4).
The 9% Muslims in the State are unable to see either the BJP or the TIPRA Motha as their ally. As a result, they remain isolated and without much political energy in State politics. The entry of the TIPRA Motha has changed the political landscape of the State by clearly pitting the Adivasis against the non-Adivasis of the state.
(Suhas Palshikar teaches political science and is chief editor of Studies in Indian Politics)
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